he 2025 Philippine general elections, held on May 12, have significantly reshaped the nation's political landscape, highlighting the enduring influence of the Duterte family and the evolving dynamics within President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s administration.

Duterte Family's Political Resurgence

Despite being detained at The Hague by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges related to his controversial anti-drug campaign, former President Rodrigo Duterte won the mayoral race in Davao City by a landslide, securing over 660,000 votes—eight times more than his closest rival. His family maintained political dominance in the region: his son Sebastian was elected vice mayor, his eldest son Paolo retained his congressional seat, and two grandsons succeeded in local contests. Five candidates backed by the Duterte family also led in the Senate elections, bolstering their political influence.

These victories bolster Vice President Sara Duterte's position as she faces a Senate impeachment trial in July over allegations of fund misuse and an alleged plot against President Marcos Jr. The Senate results are crucial for her defense, as she needs at least nine of 24 senators to vote for her acquittal. A conviction would bar her from future public office, including the 2028 presidential race, for which she is a strong candidate.

Marcos Administration's Shifting Fortunes

President Marcos Jr.'s coalition, Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, which includes Lakas–CMD and Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, retained a majority in the House of Representatives. However, the administration's popularity has waned amid economic challenges and internal political rifts, particularly with the Duterte faction. While Marcos allies were projected to dominate the Senate, Duterte-aligned candidates secured key seats, raising Sara Duterte's chances of surviving her impeachment trial.

Election Integrity and Security Concerns

The elections were marred by violence and technical issues. The Philippine National Police recorded 35 election-related incidents since January 2025, resulting in 13 deaths. Voting was delayed in some areas due to protests and technical glitches, including ballot machine malfunctions exacerbated by extreme heat. Additionally, there were reports of vote-buying, with over 600 cases recorded by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC).

Foreign Interference and Disinformation

Philippine authorities reported indicators of Chinese government interference in the elections, including discrediting candidates critical of China and supporting those sympathetic to Chinese interests. The National Intelligence Coordinating Agency alleged that Chinese agents amplified divisive political discourse in coordination with local proxies. A Chinese national was arrested for operating a spying device near the offices of the Commission on Elections. During his term as president, Rodrigo Duterte showed great deference towards China and its president Xi Jinping.

In summary, the 2025 Philippine elections have reinforced the Duterte family's political clout, challenged the Marcos administration's dominance, and raised concerns about electoral integrity and foreign interference. The outcomes set the stage for a contentious political environment leading up to the 2028 presidential race.

Published 5/14/2025