Overhead view of China occupied Panatag Shoal, aka Bajo de Masinloc. Photo: CSIS/AMTI, DigitalGlobe wo powerful forces are coalescing in the South China Sea (SCS). On the one hand, there is China; on the other, there is the United States. As far as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is concerned, they own most of the South China Sea. The U.S. and the rest of the world, however, say those Chinese claims have no merit. So far, China has Cambodia and North Korea on its side. The U.S. has Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam on its side—possibly Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia as well. However, one country that appears to be vacillating back and forth is the Philippines. It seems that Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte can't decide which side he's on. When U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, announced that the U.S. did not recognize China's sweeping SCS claims, the Philippines cheered him on. But a few weeks later, Malacañang announced that the Philippines would not participate in maritime drills with the U.S. and its allies. As we noted in a previous editorial, the Duterte administration could be playing one superpower against the other to extract as many concessions as it can, from both sides. Unfortunately, playing that game will be temporary at best. At some point, Duterte will have to choose. And barring any unforeseen or game-changing event, we suspect he will choose China. Why? Take a step back and ask yourself what Duterte and the West have in common. Then ask yourself what he and the CCP have in common. Duterte himself regularly praises China and its leader. On the other hand, Duterte and the West—which includes the U.S.—can barely tolerate one another. He sees the West as overly intrusive, while it sees him as someone who operates outside accepted norms. Over time, this mutual antipathy will likely push Duterte closer into China's orbit. There, he can feel safe—for as long as he remains a loyal vassal. Published 8/16/2020